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1.3 billion diabetes cases expected by 2050

Nov 16, 2023
danatech Staff
A recent study published in The Lancet reveals that the global prevalence of diabetes is expected to more than double in the next 30 years, affecting over 1.3 billion people worldwide. Currently, over half a billion people are living with diabetes, with a global prevalence rate of 6.1%. Diabetes is identified as one of the top 10 leading causes of death and disability globally. The study highlights regional variations, with the highest rates found in North Africa and the Middle East. Additionally, the research emphasizes that almost all cases (96%) are type 2 diabetes (T2D), with high body mass index (BMI) being the primary risk factor. The study emphasizes the complex nature of diabetes prevention and control, involving genetic, logistical, social, and financial factors. The findings stress the need for a comprehensive understanding of diabetes impact at a granular level to address disparities and improve access to screening and treatment. The study was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A recent study published in The Lancet reveals that the global prevalence of diabetes is on the rise, with rates expected to double in the next 30 years. Currently, over half a billion people worldwide are living with diabetes, and this number is projected to reach 1.3 billion. Every country will experience an increase in diabetes cases.

The study highlights that diabetes is now one of the top 10 leading causes of death and disability globally. The highest prevalence rates are found in North Africa and the Middle East, with a projected increase to 16.8% by 2050. Latin America and the Caribbean are also expected to see a significant rise to 11.3%.

Among different age groups, individuals aged 65 and older are particularly affected by diabetes, with a global prevalence rate of over 20%. The highest rate within this age group was observed in North Africa and the Middle East at 39.4%, while Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia had the lowest rate at 19.8%.

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) accounts for 96% of global cases, and all 16 risk factors studied were found to be associated with T2D. The primary risk factor was a high body mass index (BMI), contributing to 52.2% of T2D disability and mortality. Other significant risk factors included dietary risks, environmental/occupational risks, tobacco use, low physical activity, and alcohol use.

The lead author of the study, Dr. Liane Ong, emphasizes that the rapid growth of diabetes is not only concerning but also poses significant challenges for healthcare systems worldwide. The disease is not simply linked to obesity, lack of exercise, and poor diet. Preventing and managing diabetes is complex due to various factors, including genetics, logistical, social, and financial barriers, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.

The study highlights the importance of considering the conditions in which people are born and live, as these factors contribute to global disparities in diabetes prevalence. Access to screening, treatment, and healthcare services are influenced by these inequities. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of how diabetes affects populations at a granular level is crucial.

The research utilized the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, examining data from 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2021. The study team, comprising researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and GBD 2021 collaborators worldwide, also estimated the burden of type 1 diabetes (T1D) and quantified the proportion of T2D burden attributable to the 16 identified risk factors.

The study was supported by funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Read the full press release at IHME.


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